Today demographic problems are the most important ones for the world civilization. Alongside with ecological, nuclear, social and other global problems they require the intentest attention on the part of the world community. The demographic situation in Tajikistan has aggravated. The tempos of GDP (gross domestic product) accretion fell behind those ones of population growth. Thereupon, from year to year GDP per capita has been reducing entailing consequentially reduction of living standard.
Since the second half of the XX-th century the process of population growth tempos reduction is observed in the world. If at the beginning of the 60-ies the population of the world increased by 2 per cent, in the 80-ies this figure diminished to 1.7% and in the 90-ies to 1.5%. But even these tempos were fairly high. Annually 140 million children are both in the world. At present over 6 billion people live on the Earth. Out of this number only 1.2 billion live in economically developed countries, whereas 4.8 billion befall the rest countries.
It is worth mentioning that population accretion tempos are not one and the same in different countries. In the Asian-African region population accretion is much higher than in Europe and America. If such tempos remain unchanged according to calculations of demographers to the end of the XXI-st century the population of the planet will constitute 27 billion people.
However, scientists determined that food reserves of the globe can provide only 10 billion people.
Today 1 billion people ion the countries of South Asia and Africa sustain difficulties with foodstuffs. Annually 13-18 million people in the world die out of famine. Bread production per capita is not stable. In 1950-1972 the total amount of produced bread in the world increased by 3.1 per cent, in 1973-1986 it average 2.1 per cent. According to UNO data two thirds of mankind live in the states sustaining chronically dearth of foodstuffs. Thus, a dangerous misbalance arose between the needs in the means of existence and possibilities of production.
The demographic situation in Tajikistan is an acute social problem as well. In order to understand this problem one should correlate some figures. For the latest decade the population of the republic augmented from 5.5 million up to 6.3 million, i.e. accretion averaged 14.5%. In rural districts it amounted from 3.5 million up to 4.5 million (accretion -28.5%). But at the same time the national domestic product reduced from 4.6 billion to 1.8 billion somoni, i.e. by 64 per cent. To put it otherwise, if in 1991 GDP per capita made up 836.4 somoni ($270.6) in 2001-285.7somoni ($92.4) respectively; reduction being 2.9 times.( "E. Rahmonov and Revival of National State". Collection of articles. Khujand, 2002)
The demographic problem in Tajikistan has a number of its own peculiarities. The first one lies in the families being large, there are many children in each one. An average Tajik family consists of 7 members and practically one working person supports six non-working.
The second peculiarity is a deficiency of irrigative lands. Today 1 hectare of irrigative lands befalls each citizen of the republic. To 2010 if such tempos of population accretion retain this indicator will be equal to 800 districts. It will aggravate the demographic situation in the country to a great extent.
There is one peculiarity more - it lies in low subsistence level. According to the data of international organizations over 80 per cent of population live behind the line of poverty, it creates great difficulties for the improvement of demographic situation and realization of poverty reduction strategy in the republic.
In order to elevate population's living standard one should have new job vacancies. Among CIS countries Tajikistan occupies the first place in the quantum of able-bodied population if to take a percentage proportion in regard to the total number of citizens. This figure is going up from year to year. Professor D. Tagayev counted that in order to solve the problem of unemployment Tajikistan needs one million new job vacancies. But it is practically an unfeasible task. (D. Tagayev. "The State of Tajiks". Dushanbe, 2000).
Deficiency of job vacancies, low wages, poor economic development of the country make citizens go abroad in search of earnings. As different sources assert, up to million citizens have been outside the republic searching for jobs. Mass migration of able - bodied population causes additional hardships for economic development of Tajikistan deteriorating the demographic situation being complicated without it.
Many developed countries of the world have already gained a certain experience in regulation of demographic problems. Due to state approach towards family planning the accretion of population in China acquired a regulated character thus promoting an economic development of the country.
For the last years we speak a lot about the economic development of South Korea, China, Singapore and a number of other countries. Scientists impute their progresses to the proper settlement of economic and demographic problems. Thus, for example, Singapore whose population is 3 million produces annually all sorts of goods per capita to the amount of 19-20 thousand USA dollars. Tajikistan ought to seriously study the experience of Ch PR, Singapore, South Korea and other countries on demographic problems.
In many state demographic policy should be in conformity with its political development under formation of democracy and market economy. It is delightful to note that in the strategy of development of Tajikistan this policy also is moving to the foreground. In his speech at the all-republican conference-meeting dwelling on the demographic problem president Emomali Rahmonov accentuated its complicacy and seriousness for contemporary Tajikistan. In order to solve in one should intensify propagandizing-explicatory work among the population, develop rapidly industry, agriculture and communal sphere.
New economic relations and high accretion of population are incompatible under modern conditions. Proceeding from the practice of world civilization sovereign Tajikistan should build up its demographic policy in conformity with the requirements dictated by new-economic and political realias.