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A recurrent time the president of the Russian
Federation Vladimir Putin makes a transit stop in Bishkek
after touring over South-Eastern Asia. Though there is no
direct evidence that Russia has chosen Kyrgyzstan as its strategic
partner in Central Asia, the development of the situation
in the region makes think that the USSR assignee stakes on
a more complaisant partner. Up to recent time yet namely Tajikistan
was called a strategic partner of Russia in Central Asia.
And there was a warranty for it. Because the basic armed formations
of Russia abroad were concentrated on the territory of this
Central Asian country. Motor shooting division 201 was to
make up the foundation of the first Russian military base
created on legal grounds beyond the boundaries of the country.
However, in spite of preliminary attained agreements the process
of ratification in the Tajik parliament has been lingering.
The Tajik politologists presume that it should be put down
to the divergence in assessments in regard to the significance
of a military base for the both states. They are inclined
to think that having lost considerably its influence in Central
Asian region after the collapse of the USSR Russia retarded
with a defense of its political interests on this territory.
At the same time they don't deny that the mightiest power
of the post-Soviet space understanding the importance of guarding
its frontiers far beyond the boundaries of its own territory
attaches greater importance to economic interests than to
geopolitical ones as it has been sustaining grave financial
hardships.
So, from the point of view of Russia the issue concerned with
a military base in one of Central Asian countries should be
approached under this angle. Nonetheless, Russia doesn't give
up its endeavors to retain its sway in the region. To say
the truth, lessened financial expenses are taken into account
too. A military base on the territory of Tajikistan might
be the most convenient variant. An implementation of this
program might require considerably reduced expenditures in
comparison with a territory of any other Central Asian state.
But Tajikistan started forwarding requirements. The country
laid accounts with investments into the national economy promised
by the strategic partner for years, it was waiting for realization
of the intention, which might help Tajikistan to come out
of the lingering crisis. Though Russian business circles were
offered the most beneficial projects, throughout the decade
passed they didn't do anything concrete to justify the hopes
of their strategic partner. It is not easy to say about coolness
in Tajik-Russian relations, but in the opinion of a good deal
of politologists, the atmosphere in Tajikistan is associated
immediately with the changed Russian position. It is confirmed
by reorientation upon Kyrgyzstan also called as a strategic
partner by Russia. In spite of the absence of convincing proofs
in regard to the changed policy of Russia in Central Asia
the processes taking place in Tajikistan are a sequence of
the different stance of Russia in reference to military collaboration
with Tajikistan. The primary thing, which started to disturb
the local population is a steep leap in prices for foodstuffs;
flour and baked goods coming first. The explications alluding
to reduced grain deliveries from Kazakhstan, though well grounded,
put on the alert still. Some people deem that Russian influence
through the third country may take place.
Such policy is vindicated by the fact that foodstuffs have
been followed by combustible lubricating stuffs, which now
cost much expensive. Such steep rise in prices wasn't witnessed
by the country even in the mostly hardest years. Only the
years of civil opposition are an exception. As analysts regard,
the situation with power vehicles should its former strategic
partner. However, at the same time they are prone to think
that Tajikistan has obviously overestimated its own potentialities.
Urged on by certain political circles of the West the government
of Tajikistan laid out of accounts to what extent the country
depends on Russia though many economic links had been severed
with the collapse of the USSR. Meanwhile, having done the
first hopeful steps in the direction of overcoming the economy
crisis the country perceives a new slump coming; this time
it may break out into a fuel-energy deficiency, which will
entail inevitable recession of production and decline of subsistence
level.
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