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22.10.2003ANALITICS - GLANCE

WHEN ECONOMIC LEVERS ENTER INTO ACTION

A recurrent time the president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin makes a transit stop in Bishkek after touring over South-Eastern Asia. Though there is no direct evidence that Russia has chosen Kyrgyzstan as its strategic partner in Central Asia, the development of the situation in the region makes think that the USSR assignee stakes on a more complaisant partner. Up to recent time yet namely Tajikistan was called a strategic partner of Russia in Central Asia. And there was a warranty for it. Because the basic armed formations of Russia abroad were concentrated on the territory of this Central Asian country. Motor shooting division 201 was to make up the foundation of the first Russian military base created on legal grounds beyond the boundaries of the country. However, in spite of preliminary attained agreements the process of ratification in the Tajik parliament has been lingering. The Tajik politologists presume that it should be put down to the divergence in assessments in regard to the significance of a military base for the both states. They are inclined to think that having lost considerably its influence in Central Asian region after the collapse of the USSR Russia retarded with a defense of its political interests on this territory. At the same time they don't deny that the mightiest power of the post-Soviet space understanding the importance of guarding its frontiers far beyond the boundaries of its own territory attaches greater importance to economic interests than to geopolitical ones as it has been sustaining grave financial hardships.
So, from the point of view of Russia the issue concerned with a military base in one of Central Asian countries should be approached under this angle. Nonetheless, Russia doesn't give up its endeavors to retain its sway in the region. To say the truth, lessened financial expenses are taken into account too. A military base on the territory of Tajikistan might be the most convenient variant. An implementation of this program might require considerably reduced expenditures in comparison with a territory of any other Central Asian state. But Tajikistan started forwarding requirements. The country laid accounts with investments into the national economy promised by the strategic partner for years, it was waiting for realization of the intention, which might help Tajikistan to come out of the lingering crisis. Though Russian business circles were offered the most beneficial projects, throughout the decade passed they didn't do anything concrete to justify the hopes of their strategic partner. It is not easy to say about coolness in Tajik-Russian relations, but in the opinion of a good deal of politologists, the atmosphere in Tajikistan is associated immediately with the changed Russian position. It is confirmed by reorientation upon Kyrgyzstan also called as a strategic partner by Russia. In spite of the absence of convincing proofs in regard to the changed policy of Russia in Central Asia the processes taking place in Tajikistan are a sequence of the different stance of Russia in reference to military collaboration with Tajikistan. The primary thing, which started to disturb the local population is a steep leap in prices for foodstuffs; flour and baked goods coming first. The explications alluding to reduced grain deliveries from Kazakhstan, though well grounded, put on the alert still. Some people deem that Russian influence through the third country may take place.
Such policy is vindicated by the fact that foodstuffs have been followed by combustible lubricating stuffs, which now cost much expensive. Such steep rise in prices wasn't witnessed by the country even in the mostly hardest years. Only the years of civil opposition are an exception. As analysts regard, the situation with power vehicles should its former strategic partner. However, at the same time they are prone to think that Tajikistan has obviously overestimated its own potentialities. Urged on by certain political circles of the West the government of Tajikistan laid out of accounts to what extent the country depends on Russia though many economic links had been severed with the collapse of the USSR. Meanwhile, having done the first hopeful steps in the direction of overcoming the economy crisis the country perceives a new slump coming; this time it may break out into a fuel-energy deficiency, which will entail inevitable recession of production and decline of subsistence level.

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