Tajikistan is one of developing countries searching agonizingly for investments into economy. For the whole decade the government and the president try to convince the business circles of the developed countries in the perspectiveness of investing into mining and power engineering branches, however, not a single big economy project is supported up to now. The early 90-ies were promising years for the country. But, to say the truth, many of us, economists inclusive, were living with illusions, we were sure that the country might be loaded with money only at the expense of cotton. But we didn’t take into account that very soon we should have found ourselves in a deep economic crisis due to non-availability of raw stuffs. Very few people understood that the resources the republic might earn at the cost of cotton growing will hardly cover those ones which were spent for oil products and gas acquired abroad. Life made us speak not in terms of emotions but in those ones of figures. Now we do comprehend that power engineering independence is mostly important for any country. If in due time we had accomplished the construction of Roghun HEPS, the most powerful one in Central Asia, today we wouldn’t have sustained so many difficulties not only in the process of home economy development, but in domestic life either. But all this is in the past already. Now we need investments. Whether they will be available - that’s the question. Though the development of the situation in the region, and in the entire post-Soviet space, inspires hope.
The ruminations, as for the prospects of economy development in the country, make me often memorize the arrival of the imposing and authoritative delegation of industrialists from Russia in 1994 in Tajikistan. Military actions continued on the southern frontiers then but the situation in the capital was rather stable. At that time Emomali Rahmonov headed the Supreme Council. Clandestine struggle for influence was going on between Russia and Uzbekistan patronizing governmental forces. Tajikistan gave preference to more powerful Russia. The delegation of the business circles of Russia was headed by the minister on CIS affairs Sergey Serov. Among the guests there was the former chairman of the USSR Gosplan (State planning) Alexander Maslyukov appointed subsequently the first deputy chairman of the Russian government headed by Yevgeny Primakov. In the south of the republic the object of attention was Roghun HEPS, in the north - the enterprises included into “Vostokredmet” production amalgamation, Jidjikrood gold deposit and Panjakent affinage plant whose construction was not accomplished yet at that time; “Zarafshon” JV, “Sano” producing jeans wares and broiler mill on Samgar state-farm; these outfits were the first joint ventures in the viloyat. There were signed a number of documents whose realization might have proved a real aspiration of Russia for cooperation with Tajikistan in the sphere of economy. Regretfully, not a single idea was embodied. And now when almost a decade has ensued Russia and Tajikistan speak again about cooperation in the realm of economics. But only there are other characters on the stage. From both sides. Only president Rahmonov with a narrow group of the experts of his service and that one of the government remember about it. Practically everything is to be done having zero as a starting point.
Could it have been otherwise? I think it couldn’t. There were a lot of reasons for it. Russia itself was in the state of fever. And it referred not only to its economy, which also needed investments. It referred to the power as well. An acute political struggle inside made the president of Russia Boris Yeltsin concentrate on political issues first and foremost. As for investments from other countries, it was difficult to find those who would dare to launch any business in Tajikistan under that instability. Because it was difficult to predict the development of events at that time. Into the bargain, the laws of the state which only started its reforms could hardly attract a potential investor. Moreover, many representatives of business circles who displayed interestedness in independent Tajikistan dropped the started negotiations on launching joint ventures.
It’s not owing to chance that I raised the theme of joint ventures in the north of the country, which began their activities in early 90-ies. Out of three JVs enumerated above two function up to now. If “Zarafshon” JV in Panjakent has been working in a stable regime up to nowadays, “Sano” JV which was changing investors and institutors several times can’t ever overcome the crisis. The irregularity in juridical issues concerned with a Tajik share in foreign companies resulted into the situation when the status of the enterprise is unclear now. After many years had elapsed the economy court of Sughd viloyat got down to deal with this matter trying to separate the Tajik share of property and impart a status of a joint stock company to the enterprise. A paradoxical situation sprang up here. All necessary things seem to be available in order to adjust a production of competitive cotton goods. There is modern equipment, shops, and raw stuff, hereby produced quite near in excess. But there is no production. It is put down to uncertainty of relations with foreign institutors who don’t react to the requests of the Tajik party which wants to discuss the questions related to property. Under such circumstances nobody is imaginable to run a risk of allowing turnover resources lost by the enterprise long ago.
As for the third enterprise mentioned in this article and built with the participation of Israeli businessmen, it doesn’t exist any more. But ten years ago when I told about this outfit the prospects of catering the local market with poultry meat were broad enough. One example, which stuck in my memory may illustrate how profitable the broiler mill on growing turkeys might have been. A kilogram of hen pluck cost no less than five dollars in the world market at that time. Israel itself was the main consumer of this delicatessen. I don’t know who and how managed to liquidate this outfit. We can only feel regret that the owners of this enterprise were so indifferent to the state property entrusted to them.
The analysis of the economic situation in Northern Tajikistan shows that joint ventures with foreign partners displayed themselves as the most perspective and optimal form of industrial development. Share participation is of no importance, of course, if it is no defense enterprise. It is important to create profitable terms for a potential investor. It is quite possible to conclude multistage agreements, which would afford the investor to quickly redeem his expenses. It means that a treaty (if it deals with extraction of gas, oil, non-ferrous metals) should be concluded for certain periods, say, for five, ten, twenty years and so on. A lucrative share an investor can reckon for, having charged big financial and material expenditures should be higher at an initial stage than that one of owners, but since the moment of their being covered this shared should be gradually diminishing, and as for the state, it should have an increasing share. Such effective system justified itself completely, for example, in Kuwait when it started to extract oil and to process it.
“Kabool-Tajik-Textiles” and “Javoni” joint ventures launched on the base of “Abreshim” JSC afforded the processing branch of Sugdh viloyat to do a breakthrough in cotton fiber manufacturing. Annually these two enterprises together produce more than one fourth of goods from the specific amount of all industrial commodities put out in Sughd viloyat. “Kabool-Tajik-Textiles” and “Javoni” JVs processing cotton and producing cotton fabrics, “Zarafshon” specializing in gold extraction are the basic enterprises for today which determine the accretion tempos of industrial production in Northern Tajikistan being the primary donors of the viloyat budget.
All in all, 137 joint ventures with the capital of foreign firms are registered in Sughd viloyat. 21 outfits deal with industrial production. The share of industrial production over the viloyat made up 40.3% for 2002. In total the industrial outfits produced the commodities costing 415.7 million somoni; 167.7 million somoni out of this sum befalling joint ventures. Now only “Kabool-Tajik-Textiles” produces 14.5% from all the goods put out by the viloyat industry. 13.4% befall “Zarafshon” JV. Two other joint ventures - “Abreshim” and “Javoni” produce almost 4% from all the industrial output of Northern Tajikistan. All these data prove that foreign capital and home one as well - contrary to the examples delivered - proceed to be working and bringing revenues under a normal organization of labor. One can gather the impression that the economic slump didn’t touch these outfits. But there are illusions. The matter is, to what extent the framed mechanism is able to sensitively react when the economic situation changes. The main thing is a properly organized marketing policy. All the production should be subordinated to market demands, we mean ready-made goods. As for extraction of raw stuffs and their processing, every outfit will have reacted to any global economic developments taking place in the world. Form this point of view it would be appropriate to pay attention to the reduction of prices for cotton fiber in the world market last year; the situation having reflected on “Kabool-Tajik-Textiles” activity at once. However, experts knew for sure that this process wouldn’t be lasting for long, they planned their further schemes designing on this premise.
The analysis of JVs activities testifies to the fact that the enterprises working on local raw stuffs, first of all, on cotton are mostly stable. The example with “Zarafshon” JV illustrates that mining outfits may be highly lucrative as well. There are no few enterprises in Northern Tajikistan, which specialized earlier in the extraction of non-ferrous metals. Today their common grief is non-availability of defense resources.
In the middle of the 80-ies I, as a TV journalist dealing advantageously with politics and economy, had a chance to go to Anzob mining combine. At that time the outfit was governed by Ivan Fyodorovich Glazunov to whom no one generation of miners is grateful. His dream was a launch of a hydrometallurgical plant. The worked out concentrate was transferred for further manufacturing to Kyrgyzstan, it was hundreds of kilometers far. The entire problem lay in the fact that the most uphill job - that of zinc and mercury extraction - accrued to Tajik miners, but the lion share of revenues fell to the lot of the manufacturing enterprise. It was the injustice of the created economy mechanism the Soviet Union was distinguished with. All our sorrows stem from it; so, the mining industry in Tajikistan practically had no accomplished cycle of its own.
Today, taking into consideration the availability of ready productions on extraction of non-ferrous metals in the north of the country there is a unique opportunity of launching a number of joint ventures with participation of foreign and local capitals. Now only because the market of Central Asia is inadequately reclaimed there is a tendency of supporting programs, which would promise to give fast “shoots”. However, if to think about stable revenues they might be brought by the mining industry requiring big resources and patience, of course.
Investment of means into processing industry is not devoid of sense. The knowledge of the Russian market being the basic one for our agrarians where they can trade off their produce permits me to affirm that in future we may have a chance to supersede many Western purveyors form there. It is the quality of our produce that matters, as it surpasses European and American analogues several times by its nutritious and gustatory properties. Only you should have skills in presenting this commodity. For this you need processing outfits with modern technologies of packing and keeping a produce. Under this angle, to my mind, framing of joint processing ventures together with Russian regions might be a prospective streamline. Today many Russian regions possess adequate investitive availabilities and one should try to discuss these issues on the spots.
And, at last, we should look upon the situation in the country - to what extent it has matured to hope for investments. I mean the atmosphere shaped in the CIS space when post-Soviet countries are striving to unite to form a unified economic space, the interest in the economic potential of Tajikistan on the part of Western business circles elevating from day to day; the social air in our country is becoming suitable for attracting investors. You mustn’t search for examples too far. The decision of Russia and Kazakhstan to make investments into the power engineering branch of Tajikistan, the business trip of Ural region representatives into Sughd viloyat and their intention to promote a revival of the capacities of Adrasman mining combine, active undertakings of France and Germany in the cause of establishing mutually profitable contacts with Tajikistan - all these facts evidence to the changed times; the country has matured to carry a radical economic reform into effect. The primary thing in business is an incentive, which must attract an investor. Isn’t it high time our legislators once more looked upon the problem through the prism of investor’s interests and removed all the numerous obstacles keeping from initiative? It is important that we were no passive observers. Reciprocal aspiration for implementation of the projects designed is of great significance. We, as it seems to me, are the mostly concerned party. We have to raise our economics in order to provide a worthy life for our people.